Recently, the China Automobile Industry Association held a regular press conference on monthly automobile production and sales data. According to the data, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in July was 246000, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%.

Compared with the 37.4% decline in June, the decline in sales volume in July was narrowed, but it still did not change the trend of continuous year-on-year decline in commercial vehicle sales.

Focus on the heavy truck market. According to relevant statistics, the sales volume of domestic heavy trucks in July was about 45000, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, which was also the 15th consecutive decline since May last year. According to the data of the first half of the year, the heavy truck industry sold about 380000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 64%.

On the other hand, the passenger car market shows a trend of "ice and fire". With the help of favorable policies, the passenger car market has experienced a short trough period and quickly recovered. The sales volume affected by the epidemic in the previous few months has also found a certain supplement. The sales volume in June was 2.2222 million, and the sales volume in July was 2.174 million, showing the performance of "not light in the off season".

As we all know, in the first half of the year, many departments took a series of measures to stabilize the economy and promote consumption to promote the consumption of commercial vehicles and relieve the sales pressure, such as the policy of deferred repayment of commercial truck loans, the issuance of 100 million yuan of commercial vehicle consumption coupons and the preferential policy of expressway tolls. Why are the promotion effects of these favorable policies not obvious?

In this regard, relevant insiders explained: "commercial vehicles are different from passenger vehicles. Passenger vehicles are consumer goods, which are more likely to be stimulated by preferential policies to promote sales growth, while commercial vehicles are different logic. Users will not buy them when the price is lowered, because commercial vehicles are production materials, and they will take them to earn money after they buy them. If they cannot make money after they buy them, they will also lose money inside, and at this time, users will postpone buying them." This is also the core logic that dominates the commercial vehicle cycle.

According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, before the first half of last year, driven by the environmental protection policy, the enterprises seized the opportunity to switch the national five and six emission standards, and there was a long-term peak of vehicle purchase, resulting in insufficient power for the current demand for vehicle replacement; In the same period last year, the output of heavy-duty national five diesel vehicles was relatively high, and so far there are still a small number of vehicles to be digested; The inventory of blue light trucks is large, and the inventory digestion is slow; In the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic, the infrastructure started slowly, and the construction speed was slower than expected. These factors have a great impact on the sales volume of freight cars.

It is worth noting that the CAAC reduced the sales volume of commercial vehicles predicted at the end of last year from 4.5 million to 4 million. The sales volume of domestic commercial vehicles in the first half of the year totaled 1.702 million. According to the revised estimate, the sales volume of domestic commercial vehicles in the second half of the year will reach about 2.3 million, an increase of about 35% over the first half of the year.

According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, under the encouragement of the "package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy" issued by the State Council and the continuous implementation of the detailed rules for promoting consumption, China's macro-economy will maintain stable growth, market consumption confidence will also be significantly restored, the effect of the policy of halving the purchase tax will continue to show, and the truck market will also bottom out and recover under the influence of favorable factors such as infrastructure construction and delayed repayment of principal and interest of truck loans.

What areas can we start from to boost the commercial vehicle market?

1. Macro control:

(1) Accelerating the elimination of old diesel vehicles and introducing subsidy policies to promote the elimination of old diesel vehicles as soon as possible will stimulate the demand for replacement of commercial vehicles to a certain extent, and can play a role in driving the sales of new vehicles.

(2) Lift the restrictions on vehicles with a total mass of less than 3.5t entering the city, extend the transition period of blue brand new regulations, allow inventory vehicles to obtain longer digestion time, and relieve the pressure of enterprises and dealers.

(3) Attach importance to issues related to commercial vehicle insurance and give assistance from a macro perspective, so that the insurance business can be handled smoothly while the vehicles are sold, and the insurance companies are no longer picky.

(4) In addition to the self-regulation of the transport market, strong regulatory measures should be added, such as formulating industry rules, driving industry self-discipline, establishing market access dynamic regulation and market exit mechanism, improving the degree of industry intensification, establishing early warning and circuit breaker mechanism, creating an authoritative and standardized freight transport trading platform, establishing a transport benchmark pricing system, etc., to improve the low-price competition environment and achieve supply-demand balance.

2. Enterprise itself:

(1) New energy of commercial vehicles has become an inevitable trend. Technological changes such as new energy, hydrogen energy and intelligent driving can not only help enterprises resolve the pressure of national six emission standards, double carbon goals and safety goals, but also the only way for the transformation and upgrading of the commercial vehicle industry in the long run.

(2) It is urgent to change the operation idea. Enterprises should pay more attention to the changes in the demand of vehicle models. Even if the base number is small, it may form a mainstream trend in some fields.

(3) At present, the factors restricting the smooth flow of logistics due to the epidemic are gradually alleviated, and the recovery of the commercial vehicle market is expected. Enterprises also need to do a good job in "combination" of products, services and financial solutions.

(4) Referring to the marketing route of "small batch and high profit" in Europe, commercial vehicles, as the means of production, are related to the economic development and market capacity in the region, and it is unlikely to increase indefinitely. The only way out is to do a good job in various services in the life cycle of vehicles and dig deep into various profit points. The sale of vehicles does not mean the end of the business. Instead, it should be the beginning of the business chain. The following links such as services, accessories, insurance and second-hand car recycling need to be continued. After all, the rear market of commercial vehicles is a blue ocean, and the vast world has great potential.